Like the meat mountains called sumo wrestlers, the american and chinese fleets confront each other in the south china sea. Apparently in place until one of them believes it has a sufficient advantage to push the other into a fatal position. Armed to the teeth with missiles and nuclear warheads. And if either is mistaken…
I don’t intend to discuss the morality of the situation. A intended military action has probably been chewed upon in the high offices as in the naval headquarters. What I hope to discuss is the possibility that a military action occurs without either part desires it and then follow up presenting a (I hope) better alternative.
Let us start with the possibility that one part thinks it is under attack and defends itself: There exists no Berlin Wall or border where contacts with the opposite side or even with their own headquarters are secure and practiced. No such major confrontation over square miles of ocean in one of the world’s stormy areas, where the fear of an attack is constantly, present has occurred in the history of the world.
The other danger (possibility) is that a conflikt will be triggered by a third part which is convinced that a nuclear conflict in the south china sea won’t have any major consequences outside that region. Due either through ignorance (fact resistance) or religious confusion. What ought to give both parties nightmares is how few nuclear delivery systems are needed to cause a nuclear conflict. Who would have imagined that little Serbia would cause a world war in what they thought was a local conflict.
Powerful and prosperous as the two parts are so is the population and general welfare greater among us on the outside (and we have no say in the matter because then it would already been said).
Is there a practical way out? Some might think a trade boycott of the two great powers would work. Even of this was possible there would be time for a nuclear conflict time and time again before a trade boycott would be effective.
Step 1 When the world discovered a few years after world war II that the threat of a nuclear conflict hadn’t disappeared, the forces for human survival cooperated in something called the Stockholm Appeal with thousands of signatures from literates from all over the world. Unfortunately the appeal was partial against one of the sides. If such an appeal should be repeated it must be directed to both sides.
Step 2 If such an appeal or other protest, directed to both parts, is presented, it still will only be an alarm bell, A more constructive solution could possibly something similar to the following:
a. both part agree to form a Pacific Rim development council.
b. as participants in the council the other two major economies, India and Japan would be invited.
c. Together they would find a formula to invite the other countries with direct claims on the contested areas. The participating countries will have the cance to make common contributions for the development of the area but with china and usa contributing equally. Some of the investments will be devoted to research of common interest such as climate, fisheries and research under the seas. The costs will come from the sum that earlier was needed to keep both war fleets at sea in a nuclear confrontation. Countries with lesser resources will get an advance that should be repaid with parts of eventual profits
The risks are great and the advantages from a confrontion are small. The world cannot afford such sandbox quarrels with an imminent risk that they will spread themselves to the entire planet. But if both parts instead choose peaceful competition or even cooperation, then humanity has taken a major step of avoiding a nuclear holocaust.
lengnej 